This article was written by IƱigo Camilleri De Castanedo and originally published on Grey Dynamics.
Starting life as the armed wing of the Cartel de Sinaloa, the CJNG formally separated from its parent organization and has exponentially evolved to be one of the major organized crime players in Mexico. Despite early success, the group is facing rival organizations, splinter groups, and the Mexican and U.S. government:
- It is likely that the CJNG has deterred governmental efforts to tackle organized crime. A lack of governmental aid combined with humanitarian efforts by the CJNG has likely increased the social roots and legitimacy of the group amongst communities.
- The targeting high-government officials will likely increase. The pandemic has limited the governmental capability to counter organized crime, and the CJNG has an opportunity to signal intentions and expand with a reduced risk of resistance.
- Violent clashes between the CJNG and local organized crime groups will highly likely increase. A damaged criminal economy will push groups to compete for territory and sources of revenue which are controlled in their majority by the CJNG or the Sinaloa Cartel. . .